Indo-Russian S-400 deal defies U.S.

US President Donald Trump’s imperious way of threatening to impose economic sanctions on those countries that defy his authority by trading with countries that they are barred from dealing with by the US is deeply regrettable. The strategic deal that Russia has now struck with India for supply of US$ 5 billion S-400 ‘Triumf’ surface-to-air missile system would predictably come under Trump’s radar. But evidently, at the talks that were held between India and the US when the US Secretary of State and Secretary of Defence met India’s External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Defence Minister Nirmala Sitaraman in New Delhi last month, India’s rationale and dire need in the face of a Chinese-Pakistani nexus was duly explained in all its ramifications.

A sovereign nation of India’s size and stature can ill afford to be dictated to on who it should buy its weapon systems from. With general elections in India just a few months away, no government can capitulate to a foreign power on decisions that fall within its domain. Yet, the Modi government wanted to avoid rubbing the US on the wrong side too hard, hence the attempt to appeal to US’ self-interest in containing China. By Modi government’s reckoning, the S-400 ‘Triumf’ missile system is a worthy weaponry to acquire to equip itself better against foreign attacks. It forms part of the strategic partnership that India has forged with the Russians with which it has had strategic relations for decades. There can be little doubt that the Russian anti-aircraft missile system is superior to its American counterpart.

The S-400 Triumf is an anti-aircraft system which can shoot down ballistic missiles at a range of 60 kms. It has several launchers, command and logistics vehicles and can track as many as 300 airborne targets and can destroy 36 of them in one go. While India will receive the first S-400 squadron within 24 months of signing the deal, the rest will be delivered in the next four to five years. Indo-Russian relations could have floundered if India for some reason had failed to strike this deal. It is a test of nerves for the Modi government especially if the US had flexed its muscles over the deal but India could not bow down meekly to the US and then pretend to be a burgeoning Asian power. That the deal reached fruition is an index that Modi was ready to stick his neck out. He knew only too well that if he were to succumb on Iranian oil due to fears of US sanctions and on the deal with Russia on S-400s again on US arm-twisting, his own reputation of being able to stand up to Trump and to the US in general would have been in jeopardy. The US reaction to the S-400 deal is yet to fully unfold. All eyes are on Washington to see how things unfold.

-Francis Lazar.

Associate writer (Diplomatic & Security),

For FreePressJournal.

Qatar crisis

Image courtesy - Saudi foreign ministry

On June 5th 2017 in a sudden move, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, Yemen and non arab country Maldives cut all diplomatic ties with the gulf state of Qatar. The move comes under the so called allegation of support to terror groups like Taliban and Al Qaeda in Yemen and Syria. Infact the rivalry goes back to the time when two Sunni Muslim state Qatar & Saudi had opposite views on then Egypt president Morsi. Qatar had supported the democratically elected president Morsi and Saudi had backed military dictatorship during the time of Egypt's spring revolution. The another fact which added to this isolation was Qatar's increasing ties with Iran and Turkey. The Trump administration also had a hand in this crisis in an attempt to isolate those nations who does not fall in line with the US policies and support Iran. This was well understood by U.S. president Donald Trump's tweet as soon the Saudi and other Arab countries made the statement of diplomatic cut off with Qatar.

 

 

Impact of the crisis on Qatar.

The cost of this isolation left Qatar to increase its dependence on Turkey and Iran for food and water supplies to the state.

All Qatari nationals working in the Saudi have been asked to leave the country in 2 weeks times.

 

 

One of the worlds finest national air carrier Qatar airways & finest North African news agency Al-Jazeera operating from Qatar have been asked to shut down their business operation in its subsidiaries in Saudi and its ally's states. 

What does Qatar crisis means for the world?

 

Though Qatar is a small LNG producing state as compared to other gulf countries, any attempt to create a blockade to Qatar exports of LNG  would result in entrance of Japan, India, China & Russia into the game as this countries as have made huge investment in Qatar's LNG and are hugely depended on LNG.

Impact of Qatar crisis on India.



 

       Image courtesy- MEA India    

The two way trade between Qatar and India is around 17 Bn.USD. and it is estimated that if the crisis continues around 6.5 lakh Indians working in Qatar would result in losing jobs and also increase the LNG imports cost to India from Qatar. On the other hand if crisis continues then the dependence of Qatar on Iran would increase for supplies which would benefit India to seek investment for Indian funded Chabhar port in Iran which is considered to be and competitor to Gawadar port in Pakistan and  a part of CPEC project.

 

As of now Kuwait is the negotiator between Qatar and Saudi. And we can only hope for the best results as 6.5 lakh Indians losing jobs is not feasible for indian economy as compared to getting investment for a port in Iran.

 

-Francis Lazar

 

The Hypocratic Relationship - Turkey & India

(Image courtesy- MEA.India)

The president of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is on two day visit to India to meet his courter-parts  Mukherjee & PM Modi to improve the economic relation between the two nations.

The economic relationship of  both nation has improved from 2 Bn.USD to currently 6 Bn.USD from his last vist to India as PM of Turkey in 2008.

His visit to India comes under the back door of  political  turmoil taking place in turkey caused due to the recent political referendum which gives the president more superior power to make amendments in the Turkish constitution  and during the sidelines when the European union, U.S. and  Russia  is unhappy with the  Erdoğan stands on Islamic terrorism. Hence turkey is keenly looking  for new markets like India.

The "K"- factor

While Turkey is keen on Indian markets, the Kashmir factor is one of the constraint in India-Turkey relationship. Turkey being an O.I.C. member has always stood with Pakistan against India. Recently in 2016 the O.I.C. passed a resolution against India on Kashmir human rights issue.

The hypocritical stands- India &Turkey 

While Turkey who stood for Muslim brotherhood -Pakistan on Kashmir issue. Turkey seems to be ignorant about  Kurdish issues in Turkey similar to "Kashmir" who are fighting for self independence and separation from Turkey.

The recent mutilation of two Indian jawans by Pakistan's border action team (BAT) on the day of Turkish president's visit can be considered as an attempt by Pakistan to internationalize the issue of Kashmir.

In an recent interview to WION news pre-departure to his visit to India President  Erdoğan insisted for dialogue between Pakistan and India but was ignorant of KURDISH issue stating  "you cannot compare orange with apple"  

Another double standards of turkey was supporting Pakistan along with India on the  issue of NSG. Turkey was showcasing its double stand on NSG by supporting Pakistan, a nation which has poor non proliferation record and comparing it with India's strong non proliferation record

Well Indian foreign policy makers being aware of this fact of Turkish double standards. India too played a smart card by inviting Cyprus president Nicos Anastasiades to India just a day prior to Turkish President Erdoğan  visit to India. 



Its a known fact that relationship between Turkey and Cyprus is similar to IND-PAK relation both having land and water dispute.

Present scenario

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During the meetings between two leaders both PM Modi and President Erdoğan  agreed to increase the current economic relation of 6-Bn.USD to 10-Bn USD by 2020, India would be ensuring that the Indian funded Iran chabhar port is well utilized for the supply of goods between both nations. Its a fact that Pakistan wont allow flow of goods through its  land and transportation of goods through old Europe-Asia sea route wouldn't be an cost effective method and making the 10-Bn-USD economic trade vision of 2020 unrealistic. This would give India a upper hand to seek Turkish investment for Chabhar port which is considered to be the rival of China lead Gawadhar port in Pakistan.

 



While both the leaders condemned terrorism there seems to be difference between both the sides on the term "terrorism" this was well seen and heard in their joint statement. While PM Modi emphasized on "state sponsored cross border terrorism"  President Erdoğan  focused only on"fathullah gülen" who was responsible for the recent military coup in Turkey.

The difference between the terminology was quite obvious as Turkey is supporter of Pakistan and Turkey its self is accused of state sponsored terrorism by the West and Russia on Syrian crisis.  

Well as of now its just a wait and watch game between two nations for the vision of achieving 10 Bn-USD economic relation by 2020 under this immense difference between the two nations.

-Francis Lazar



    

Iran a opportunity or threat for United states?

The new Trump administration took over the Whitehouse in the month of mid January, president Trump seems to been hard on Iran as he said during the campaign trails. Iran has been put back on the visa ban list for the second time during trump administration and removing the Iraq from the first list.

The question is whether president Trump is challenging the status quo of Obama's Iran nuclear deal as great serious security challenge to USA. or is it just to make the Arab's allies happy?

Its a fact that each nation has its own foreign policy based on its interest. But US seems to be considering Iran as a threat based on its Arab allies interest. The Obama administration was keen on making friends rather than making enemies, specially with reference to Cuba & Iran.

Hence the Iran's nuclear deal was an balancing act of Obama  administration to satisfy the Arab allies and its own dependence on Iran for afghan's stability.                                       

Its the fact that enmity between Iran and the Arab world  is based on Shia and Sunni Muslim status quo and the US has no role to play in this. This was well recognized  by Obama administration which lead to a balancing act of nuclear deal with Iran.

Iran has been a democratic nation from long history at the same time facing huge threats from ISIS from the western border and radical terrorist group from Pakistan and afghan Taliban groups in the east.

(Image courtesy :Google)

Though US has its military bases and quite good foreign relationship with Iran bordering nations it has been unsuccessful in bringing peace to the region whether its Iraq or Afghanistan, while Iran from long history has been successful in protecting their state from this terror groups.

Its seems that removing Iraq from the sanctions list and holding Iran back in sanctions list is a political move by trump admiration underestimating the big role Iran could play for stabilizing the region along with US.

For instance; Pakistan has been the barrier in bringing economic development in Afghanistan, as afghans don't have sea route access for transportation. and Pakistan's  known long time support to Taliban groups which is destabilizing Afghanistan. Its here Iran which could play a major role for bringing economic prosperity in Afghanistan.

Its a hippocratic stand by US that Pakistan, India & Israel now currently North Korea holding nuclear and ballistic weapons without being nuclear suppliers group members (expect India which has concession from NSG for peaceful use of nuclear energy) are not in the visa ban list and removing Iraq which has been base for ISIS terror group.

The only way US and other members of the world can bring peace in the Middle-east and Central & South Asian  region would be by aligning with Iran which is in the middle of this tension, holding strong security and a stable democratic government.  

-Francis lazar